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Wolves ‘would have beaten Arsenal’ says data

PUBLISHED: 16:03 13 April 2020 | UPDATED: 16:03 13 April 2020

Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli (left) celebrates scoring a goal with Nicolas Pepe

Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli (left) celebrates scoring a goal with Nicolas Pepe

PA Wire/PA Images

Second-half goals from Adama Traore and Raul Jimenez would have helped Wolves come from behind to claim a 2-1 win over Arsenal in a Premier League fixture where the outcome was predicted based on data from the PA news agency.

Wolves would have welcomed Arsenal on Easter Monday had the coronavirus pandemic not led to an indefinite suspension to football in this country and PA’s mathematical modelling shows the hosts would have prevailed.

Five of the seven goals Arsenal have scored against top-half opposition came in the first half, so it was therefore little surprise Gabriel Martinelli gave the Gunners a 36th-minute lead.

In seven of the eight times he has netted this season, Martinelli has scored Arsenal’s opening goal so this would have continued a welcome habit for the young Brazilian.

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That would have left Wolves trailing at half-time although Nuno Espirito Santo is well versed in these types of team talks as his side had been behind at the interval in 10 of their previous 14 matches against top-half opposition.

Not once have Wolves been ahead at the halfway point against a top-10 side this season, while they have only opened the scoring on one occasion, but they have also never lost the second half at home in the league in 2019/20.

It took only six minutes for Wolves to draw level through Traore, who continued his knack of scoring in big games, having found the net on three occasions against Manchester City and once versus Tottenham, all in the second half.

Arsenal have been guilty of some reckless challenges in the box this season and David Luiz conceded his fourth – and the Gunners’ seventh – penalty of the season with a clumsy foul on the irrepressible Traore in the 68th minute.

Up stepped Jimenez, who made no mistake from the spot. Of his 13 previous top-flight goals scored in this campaign, all but one have come after the break.

And it was the Mexican who had the final word once again, with eight of his 14 top-flight goals now proving to be the last of the game, as Wolves clung on to secure a vital three points – theoretically.


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